Monday, July 23, 2007

2008 Congress

This is not about the presidential race. This is mainly about the Senate and House.

I think that the Dems may pick up the following seats: Colorado, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Maine, Oregon, Virginia, Wyoming, Idaho, New Mexico, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Kentucky and Oklahoma. With possibilities of losses in Louisiana and South Dakota. That is 14 and 2.

I think there is a serious chance of pickups of at least 6, with 8-10 being more likely. This is because of the more blue trend that is happening in the Mountain West (CO, WY, ID, NM) along with the more libertarian feel of this area. Add in the seats in South, which are put into play by corruption and the new evangelical church, which has taken environmentalism and poverty as moral issues and has begun to focus on these instead of abortion and gay marriage. Additionally, there is the influence of Republican money, which for years has allowed them to compete and manipulate the debate and frame issues in their favor. With the money advantage now in favor of Dems almost 2-1 and the RNC only leading the DNC by 20% this does not bode well for 2008, especially when the Dems have a 21(+1) to 12 advantage in seats up. The money, seats, and frame of debate all combine to put things in play that shouldn't be could make 2008 an even more landmark election than 2006 or 1994 on a Senate level, possibly equal to the elections of 1980( or 1958). This would depend on the coattails of Obama or Edwards, as Hillary would have negative coattails.

On the house side, it could be another 30-45 seat pickup for the Dems. Again this is partly an effect of coattails, but also because of the effect of Iraq, Health Care, and "obstructionism". I can see it possibly being as high as 50 seats but that would require an aligning of stars so to speak. It is however not beyond the pale. Iraq, Health Care, Coattails, Corruption, Hypocrisy, Civil Liberties violations, Attorneys scandal, Katrina, Immigration, and the mishandling of just about everything all add to this happening, but gerrymandering severely dampens any underlying currents of change.

Finally adding to the overall effect is the major shift in party alignment, a plus-5 for the Dems in the past year alone, that currently puts them near 40 percent registered, if this continues it could be closer to 45 percent by November 2008, which alone would spell disaster for any party. The recent Immigration debacle could easly lead to an exodus of latinos and make them the "new blacks" in that they vote en masse for the Democrats. Finally there is the politicization of the youth, which although they do not vote in the traditionally large numbers as other demographics, but a 5 percent increase in turnout like seen in 2004 (of which 55 percent voted for Kerry) gives a further advantage.

There is one thing that cannot be underestimated, for the first time in a long time Dems sense blood in the water and are ready to strike hard and fast. Denouncing propaganda outlets like Fox News, and going on the offensive for DailyKos, liberals and progressives alike are ready to stand their ground. They no longer wish to acquiesce to the right, but are out lies at every turn, which bodes well for the party. With the recent emergence of PACs for the countering of the NRA, among others, this allows some distance from issues as well.

Thursday, June 14, 2007

Crazy Right Wing Email Fun Time!!!!!!

I love getting emails from the delusional people on the far right beyond the pale, those in the strong 28 percent that still approve of the president. Possibly the same group of people who are predisposed to authoritarianism.

(Responses in Bold)


From Jay Leno.......

The other day I was reading Newsweek magazine and came across some poll data I found rather hard to believe. It must be true, given the source, right?

The Newsweek Poll alleges that 67 percent of Americans are unhappy with the direction the country is headed and 69% of the country is unhappy with the performance of the President. In essence 2/3 of the citizenry just ain't happy and want a change.

So being the knuckle dragger I am, I started thinkin, "What we are so unhappy about?"

Is it that we have electricity and running water 24 hours a day, 7 days a week? Is our unhappiness the result of having air conditioning in the summer and heating in the winter? Could it be that 94.5% of these unhappy people have a job?

I would guess that it could be the 45 million people that are uninsured or under insured. The millions that are currently below the poverty line or in danger of fall below it. It could be the minimum wage that has not been raised in 10 years. The millions of people that cannot afford new clothes or other necessities.

Maybe it is the ability to walk into a grocery store at any time and see more food in moments than Darfur, Sudan has seen in a year?

Or it could be those very people of which 2 million plus are homeless and more than 300 000 are dead with untold numbers of rapes. And that there is no action being taken to stop this horror.

Maybe it is the ability to drive from the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean without having to present ID papers as we move through each state?

FYI, NO ONE IN FEDERALIST COUNTRIES DOES THIS. For example, Germany, Switzerland, and for that matter any country subdivided like Mexico or Canada.

Or possibly the hundreds of clean and safe motels we would find along the way that can provide temporary shelter? I guess having thousands of restaurants with varying cuisine from around the world is just not good enough. Or could it be that when we wreck our car, emergency workers show up and provide services to help all and even send a helicopter to take you to the Hospital??? Perhaps you are one of the 70% of Americans who own a home. You may be upset with knowing that in the unfortunate case of a fire, a group of trained firefighters will appear in moments and use top notch equipment to extinguish the flames thus saving you, your family and your belongings... Or if, while at home watching one of your many flat screen TVs, a burglar or prowler intrudes, an officer equipped with a gun and a bullet-proof vest will come to defend you and your family against attack or loss.

This is just silly, not being a victim or crime is not something to be happy about, it should be expected in a civilized society.

This all in a backdrop of a neighborhood free of bombs or militias raping and pillaging the residents. Neighborhoods where 90% of teenagers own cell phones and computers. How about the complete Religious, Social and Political Freedoms we enjoy that are the envy of everyone in the world? Maybe that is what makes 67% of you folks unhappy.

Freedoms such as those violated by the PATRIOT ACT? Or maybe those subverted my the rave act, or the alien and sedition act? Maybe COINTELPRO? The fact is this country has a history of subverting freedoms. And we are not even as free other countries, many of which in Europe and are for some reason despised by the right for being "socialist" since they provide funding for artists not to be starving and let new parents take up to a year off work, paid and protected from firing, to provide a family structure for the proper raising of the child, this from the same people who have enshrined family. These people should be proud of these nations for allowing this to happen and be ashamed that family life is not protected the same way in America.

FACT is, we are the largest group of ungrateful, spoiled brats the world has ever seen!!!!!!!!!! No wonder the world loves the U.S., yet has great disdain for its citizens. They see us for what we are........

The world does not have disdain for its citizens, they have disdain for what we have become. Even conservatives should have disdain for what we have become, since we are no longer a "City on a Hill" as Ronald Reagan. And although I do not espouse the ideals of Ronald Reagan, he was right in that America should be a beacon to the world. But, America is not what it was. America still has the death penalty, and is part such a prestigious group as:
Bahrain, Bangladesh, Botswana, China, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Japan, Jordan, North Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mongolia, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Uganda, Vietnam, and Yemen (According to wikipedia). Japan has recently limited executions and has moved to ban them. ABC News reports 65 percent of the nation in favor of the death penalty even though 60 percent think that it does not deter crime. An Aljazeera poll shows 52.7 percent wish to ban the death penalty. And this in a group almost hated by the right for being inhuman. What does this say about us? That we are willing to KILL even though we do not think that it serves any purpose. America is better than this. We are unhappy because we know this, and we know there is ALWAYS something that can be improved upon. The root of progressive is "progress" without progress we would not have the wheel, the printing press, the railroad, internal combustion, electricity, the internet, phones, clean water, hygiene, and untold billions of things we take for grated. All that is good in the world has been a result of progress, sure there are missteps along the way and there is much bad/evil in the world, but this should not mean we forsake innovation in hopes of forestalling and preventing the influences of evil. No, we should use further innovation to lessen it, and certainly I realize that we cannot eliminate evil, pain, and suffering, but that does not mean we should give up trying. What do we have to lose? On the other hand the root of conservative is to "conserve" the status quo, this is wrong, we should not be conservative but we should instead strive to be moral at ALL TIMES, for if we would have been conservative in the past we would still have slavery and Europe may very well be speaking German (either time), for it was a progressive idea to change what was happening in Europe that prevented and ultimately ended both wars.

The most Blessed people in the world who do nothing, BUT COMPLAIN about what we don't have and what we hate about our country, instead of Thanking the good Lord we live here. I know, I know. What about the president who took us into war and has no plan to get us out? The President who has a measly 31% approval rating? It this the same president who guided the nation in the dark days after 9/11 ? The President that cut taxes to bring an economy out of a recession? Could this be the same guy who has been called every name in the book for succeeding in keeping all the spoiled ungrateful BRATS from terrorist attacks?

He did not take us into war he forced us there with thinly veiled threats of mushroom clouds and weapons of mass destruction, and by calling us unpatriotic the same as used by Hitler to attack his people for lack of enthusiasm for war and genocide. The approval rating is 28% (must be a Faux "News"/Opinion Dynamic poll). Yes, this same president who went on vacation for a month, and ignored a memo titled "Bin Laden determined to attack within the United States" a month before 9/11. Keep in mind that his approval rating was hovering around 50 percent on 9/10, was this not the same man? Did he do so much on the tenth that his approval increased nearly forty points? Did he put in an 18 hour day that we forgot about? Or did we not care so much about his failures because there we more important things at stake? Also the recession STARTED under George Bush, and it still has not ended since most credible economists say that the rise in the stock market is not a reflection on American performance but of that in Asia. And this MBA president cut taxes and increased spending, even though he could not balance the budget and most of that went to people making more than 200 000 dollars per year. And the fact that there has not been a terrorist attack in America since 9/11 is not proof of success, being that it was eight years between world trade center attacks (not counting Oklahoma City, a domestic terror act- although some claim a link to Al Qeada here). Going solely by this it would seem that it would be another attack until 2009. The fact is terrorist are busy killing our brothers and sisters, sons and daughters in Iraq. By this measure there have been hundreds of attacks this year alone. And I would rather die in a terrorist attack than give up my freedoms to prevent it. My life is insignificant in comparison to my freedoms, since freedoms are shared with all. As Ben Franklin said
“Those who desire to give up freedom in order to gain security will not have, nor do they deserve, either one.”

The commander-in-chief of an all-volunteer army that is out there defending you and me? Did you hear how bad the President is on the news or talk show? Did this news affect you so much, make you so unhappy, you couldn't take a look around for yourself and see all the good things and be glad? THINK ABOUT IT...... are you upset at the
President because he actually caused you personal pain OR is it because the "Media" told you he was failing to kiss your sorry ungrateful behind every day.....

George Bush had NO influence over the end of the draft in fact many in his cabinet and party have moved to re-institute a draft. One person that did was Mike Gravel, a somewhat crazy man from Alaska running for president, who for more than four months single handedly filibustered in the Senate by reading the Washington, D.C. phone book. The rest of this is just silly. Again with the "liberal media bias" there is no such thing as a liberal media since there were few serious antiwar persons interviewed in March of 2003, and call for action on Kyoto. For more about this read "The Republican Noise Machine" by David Brock, a former noise maker, who documents the rights establishment and funding of think tanks to provide cover and legitimacy for their criticisms. Also his group Media Matters is a great watchdog organization. And think about it who do you trust more: Anderson Cooper or Bill O'Reilly, Peter Jennings or Sean Hannity, Edward R. Murrow or Brit Hume, Walter Cronkite or Michael Savage?

Make no mistake about it. The Troops in Iraq and Afghanistan have volunteered to serve, and in many cases may have died for YOUR reedom. There is currently no draft in this country. They DIDN'T have to go. They are able to refuse to go and end up either with a "general" discharge, an "other than honorable" discharge or a worst case
scenario, a "dishonorable" discharge after a few days in the brig.

See above for draft.

So then why the flat-out discontentment in the minds of 69% of Americans? Say what you want, but I blame it on the Media. If it bleeds, it leads and they specialize in bad news. Everybody will watch a car crash with blood and guts. How many will watch kids selling lemonade at the corner? The media knows this and media outlets are for-profit corporations. They offer what sells, and when criticized, try to defend their actions by "justifying" them in one way or another. Just ask, why they tried to allow a murderer like O.J. Simpson to write a book about how he didn't kill his wife, but if he did he would have done it this way..... Insane!!!

Wasn't OJ's special supposed to air on FOX? And the media reports the news, if you are to blame the media for blood and guts coverage, the blame does not lie there. The blame lies with the people who watch this and make it profitable, just like with the obsession with celebrities personal lives (Fox "News" and Nancy Grace love talking about Anna Nicole and Paris Hilton and Natalee Holloway). If people cared about important things they would cover them, but I do believe that what is happening in some of these blood and guts stories are important, like the Darfur genocide, and some should be covered more like the hundreds that die in Baghdad every day in their civil war, not exploded, but beheaded and stabbed or shot. Sure these stories are not pretty, but they should not be ignored.

Stop buying the negativism you are fed everyday by the the media. Shut off the TV, Burn Newseek, and use the New York Times for the bottom of your bird cage. Then start being grateful for all we have as a country. There is exponentially more good than bad.

Yes the Times is to blame for this and Newsweek too... THIS is insanity, since the Times is THE standard for journalism (newspaper) except for that slip up a while back with fake stories. Ask professors in journalism schools who reports better and is less biased the New York Times or Fox News, the only thing less biased is independent media and NPR.

We are among the most Blessed people on Earth and should thank God several times a day, or at least be thankful and appreciative...

Yes we should be thankful, but we should also be vigilant and move to bring this prosperity to the rest of the world, and make sure that we remain prosperous ourselves. As Thomas Jefferson said "
Patriotism is not a short frenzied burst of emotion, but the long and steady dedication of a lifetime." and so we should march toward a better future and NEVER remain stagnant.

Thursday, May 24, 2007

On Immigration, Oil and Iraq

With the immigration debate now relegated to the back page by now, except for with cooks like Lou Dobbs, and other ethnocentrics like Glenn Beck, Rush Limbaugh, and Michael Savage. But then again the issue of foreign peoples never goes away with these racists. I cannot bring myself to support this recent bill, not because I am afraid of the specter of latino peoples crossing the border, but because this bill does not solve the central issues at hand:

1. The bill does not solve the problem of children of "illegal" immigrants. I went to high school with a girl who was such a child and she was not able to go to college, not because she could not get in, she had better grades than I did, and for that matter better grades than most, although I had vastly better test scores. She could not attend college because she could not fill out a FAFSA, for the simple reason that her parents were not residents and therefore could not be listed on the financial aid forms. We are too great a country to prevent some of our brightest students from bettering themselves and the country. These children are not as the cook say "anchor babies", but in fact they are some of the most loyal citizens of this nation, because America has given them something that they otherwise cannot have.

2. The bill does little to punish business owners who hire illegal immigrants, if we are to truly be serious about immigration, then we should be prepared to deal with ALL of the consequences, not just the good ones. Many industries now rely on undocumented labor: produce production, meat packing, fast food, construction, and cleaning services to name a few. If the people who want to fence the border ("Mister Bush, tear down this wall!!") really want these people gone, then they should prepared to pay higher prices for things that would otherwise not be so cheap. Second, if the businesses stop hiring undocumented people, then there would be no incentive for them to come here in the first place.

Gas prices have reached a record high again and again, I think 10 times this month, and I would expect that they will go up once again. The industry claims that this is because of damage to refineries because of hurricanes Katrina and Rita, however this was almost two years ago, and gas prices are higher now than there were even while those storms were going on, and if one thinks about it, wouldn't the price be higher closer to the storms and less later? Next Prudhoe Bay was shutdown this week because of leak in the pipeline, because of lax policies for the maintaining of the pipeline, and I would expect that the price of gas will go up because of this, which it should not because the reason for high prices is lack of refinery capacity, not lack of supply, but because gas prices are based on fear and speculation not supply and demand, the price should go up. Congress has decided to punish "gas gougers" but I doubt they will punish the industry as a whole for cartel like and price fixing policies. I have no proof, but wouldn't seem logical that no new refineries have been built since the 70s because they industry realizes that why pay to build something when you can just have other people pay more for gas?

As many of my friends know, I am very anti-war, however I have to support this most recent bill, since it involves a deal that is not getting much attention. In return for a removal of timetable, but inclusion of milestones for the Iraqi government, Republicans will support an increase in the minimum wage. And while some would call this caving, I do not consider it so, as the Dems had already sent two bill and shown who is in favor and who is against the war, and now they have chosen to support the troops in light of the republicans obstruction on the issue and Mr "I think my approval has stayed at 90 percent since 9/11, even though they are at 28" decider's fully loaded veto pen.

After work I shall talk about corruption and party politicking and jockeying in the presidential race.

Saturday, April 14, 2007

Response to College Republican Email I Received, Actual Email

Will this be the actual location and time or are those subject to change depending on current approval ratings in much the similar way to the raising and lowering of terror alerts when the administration is in trouble. Also I was wondering if the funder for the support the troops grill out has been secured yet, or was this not part of the original budget to make it seem more balanced and thus an "emergency" appropriation is needed? Will Herbert Hoover humanitarian day involve machine gunning World War I veterans who wish to receive benefits? Or maybe just ignoring them entirely will they build tar paper huts? Will Ronald Reagan Day involve a massive build up of needless nuclear and biological weapon in direct violation of SALT, or maybe just a cutting of "entitlement budgets", possibly some supply side, or "voodoo" economics as it was called by Bush I? Or maybe just taking responsibility for the fall of communism through "out spending them" while in reality it was Pope John Paul II's building approval and legitimacy for democracy and independence in the Eastern Othodox world? Will the axis and allies event involve tacit approval of the Nazis? Finally will coming out day have any events relating to the Republican fascination with young boys, military prostitutes given hack post in the press corp, or having affairs while criticizing someone for the same thing? Or maybe just the typical self loathing found amongst most "rank and file" gay republicans, but not the Log Cabins?

I was just wondering because this would in fact all be historically accurate, if you disagree I can provide sources, but no doubt you will claim revisionism or "liberal bias" by the academics.

Adam


Quoting GB (Chair of College Republicans)"

> Attention UI Community:
>
> University of Iowa College Republicans will be hosting their second
> Annual Conservative Coming Out Week, April 15-21. The week will
> include a wide range of activities and visits from presidential
> candidates. All events are open to the public. I encourage all
> interested to stop by our events. All locations and times are on
> our website.
>
> Each day will be named after a president and at least one event on
> that day will be thematically linked to that president. For
> example, on the Abraham Lincoln Day, we will have a reenactment of
> the Civil War. Other major events will include the tearing down of
> the Berlin Wall on the Ronald Reagan Day, politically-oriented
> sports games, such as Axis V Allies Flag Football, and a
> Support-Our-Troops-Grill-Out. Friday, the George W. Bush
> Anti-terrorism Day, will be our busiest day, with the grill-out and
> the screening of the film "Obsession." On Saturday, the Herbert
> Hoover Humanitarian Day, we will complete our week with volunteer
> efforts throughout Johnson County.
>

>
> Thanks,
> GB
> UICR Chair

Tabula Rasa

A new start...